Trump’s Dubious Dividend: A Desperate Attempt at Reelection

The incumbent president’s party has a long history of losing seats in midterm elections, and Donald Trump’s promise to send every American citizen a $5,000 cheque is likely just another casualty of this trend. By making his “Trump dividend” contingent on Republican control of Congress, the President is effectively admitting that voters are feeling the economic pinch and he needs their votes to stay in power.

This pledge should come as no surprise, given Trump’s track record of populist gestures aimed at bolstering his approval ratings. However, experts say it’s unlikely that Republicans will be able to maintain control of both chambers of Congress, let alone overcome Trump’s dismal approval rating of 38.5 percent.

Since the 1960s, when a president’s approval rating has been below 50 percent, their party has lost an average of 32 House seats and never fewer than nine. In 2018, Trump’s party lost 40 seats despite an approval rating of 44 percent at the time. This trend speaks to a deeper issue: voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the President’s economic policies.

Trump’s promise would cost over $1.2 trillion, a staggering sum that is approximately nine times the net revenue from his tariffs since they began in March 2025. Trump claims these tariffs will pay for the dividend, and that’s part of his rationale for making it contingent on Republican control of Congress.

The fact that the Treasury would need to borrow another $1.2 trillion to fund this proposal is a recipe for fiscal disaster. It’s hard not to wonder if anyone in the administration has done the math on this plan or if they’re simply relying on wishful thinking. Trump’s claim that tariffs will pay for the dividend is particularly galling, given that his policies have already led to significant price increases for consumer goods.

The reaction from Democrats was scathing, with many calling it a “socialist vote-buying scheme.” Even some Republicans were skeptical of Trump’s proposal. Texas Congressman Chip Roy described it as a “vote-buying scheme,” while California Gov. Gavin Newsom called it “pathetic and sad at the same time.”

If Republicans do manage to hold on to both chambers of Congress, enforcing the caveat that the $5,000 dividend must be spent in the United States would be a logistical nightmare. The Treasury would need to track every transaction made by every American citizen, which is clearly unfeasible.

In reality, Trump’s promise is less about providing economic relief to struggling Americans and more about buying their votes. It’s a desperate attempt to cling to power at any cost, and it’s a strategy that will likely backfire in the long run. As the midterms approach, voters are increasingly focused on the cost of living, and Trump’s policies have done little to alleviate this concern.

His promise to send $5,000 to every adult American citizen is a stark reminder of the economic uncertainty facing the country. It’s a testament to the President’s growing desperation as he struggles to connect with voters who are increasingly disillusioned with his leadership. The odds are against him, and it remains to be seen if even this dubious dividend will be enough to save his party from the historical trend that has been their undoing in every previous midterm election.